Surprise, Surprise!!

"Surprise, Surprise", not as in the classic cliche, but a period of two surprises! Read on for details...

The first surprise was Novo Nordisk (NVO) which after reporting earning took a dive on August 5th, dropping $6 on open and then another $2 the next day. I am still trying to figure out what caused this crash, because the earnings were actually better than expected. OK, after a bit of digging I've discovered that their diabetes drug (Victoza) did not do as well as expected; it was 13% better than current drugs, but the expectation was for 15% better. :-( All told, the 2% shortfall in the expectations for the drug has cost me an almost 10% deficit in my stock's value. Ka-Flunk. Reading more details I've discovered that another cause of the downturn is the company revising it's forecast down by about 2%. The Timeliness of this stock has also dropped to an average 3, but the company is still solid. This will be one stock I will be monitoring a lot more closely.

On the happy side of the surprises, MGE Energy (MGEE) has done well since I decided to replace it with CenterPoint Energy (CNP). They announced a hike in the dividend rate, their 41st consecutive year doing so. The dividend is payable on September 15th for stock holders of record on September 1st, so if you are thinking about this one, now is the time. the stock has also appreciated in price recently currently sitting at $56.55 showing a solid 12.81% gain for me. Ka-Ching!

CenterPoint Energy (CNP) meanwhile is struggling to take off from my purchase price and sitting slightly under water, showing a 3.28% loss. The fundamentals of the stock are still strong though and it's approaching Ka-Flunk territory, but not yet in the GetOutNow range.

Looking ahead to a couple of Potentials; currently a lot of the industries at the top of the Valueline surveys rankings stocks are in the energy or utilities sector. And because I am already invested in these industries, I've had a difficult time finding good Potentials. The two that I have found bend the rules a bit, but still have good potential.

The first is Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD):
Name:                                Royal Gold Inc.
Industry:                            Precious Metals
Symbol:                              RGLD
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $75.93
Dividend Yield:                  1.1%
Industry Rank:                   1
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           45%

This stock is worthy of consideration for a few reasons. First, it's a Timeliness (1)  stock in the highest ranking industry. Next, it's a high growth stock showing an at least 10% growth in multiple fundamentals like sales growth, cash flow, earnings, dividends etc, and the forward looking estimates are just as strong. Finally, and this is the weakest reason, the current chart shows that the stock is likely to drop a bit after achieving a double peak chart pattern, so it might be a good time to get some. The only thing I don't like about it is the P/E Ratio which is at a staggering 56.7!! Is that too much? WhatSayYou? I might consider converting this to a Buy soon.

The other is Boston Scientific (BSX):
Name:                                Boston Scientific Inc.
Industry:                            Medical Supplies Invasive
Symbol:                              BSX
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $23.77
Dividend Yield:                  0%
Industry Rank:                   3
Low Gain Estimate:            25%
High Gain Estimate:           90%

Again, a good stock with solid fundamentals, that also shows up in the list of stocks with enough cash flow to operate and pay dividends and still have money left over for over 5 years. It is priced reasonably, which will allow me to grab a good parcel. The only thing I don't like about this one? No dividends... in spite of having the money to pay it. Boo!  Still, the other numbers are good and this is another stock that I might pick up soon.

That's all for this post folks, thanks for reading.
I hope you leave me some comments if you are a regular reader or even if you are a first timer.

New Features in the Side Panel

I've added a few new features to the side panel to make assessing the success(failure) of my (mis)adventures easy to see at a single glance.

First, I've added a Current Performance block that lists the currently best and worst performing stocks in the portfolio along with the cumulative rate of return of the entire (mis)adventure.

Next, I've added a list of stocks that are currently in the portfolio in the most recent buy first format. Each stock is listed with its purchase price, so you can see where it started in the portfolio.

And finally, I've added a list of stocks that used to be in the portfolio and I have sold. Each entry is tagged with the gain(loss) that I took from from the sale . These are also listed in the most recently sold order.

Hope these additions make it easier for you to admire(mock) my wisdom or lack thereof in this (mis)adventure. WhatSayYou?

Is There Anybody Out There?

I know, I know, it's been a while. 

But I do have a couple of excuses:

1. I got lazy; what can I say, happens to the best of us.
2. LIFE; like travel, a studio shutdown, layoff, job search, new job, etc., you know, simple stuff.

In any case, thanks for coming back to read my (mis)adventures. 

Let's dive right into it.

A lot has changed since I last wrote a post, so here are the updates.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) has been up and down, but currently stands at $769.89 putting me in the black on my average price with a gain of 4.65%, Ka-Ching! 

Fresh Del Monte (FDP) dropped in Timeliness and I decided to get out and Sell before things turned sour. I closed out my position at $41.833 locking in a gain of 5,44%, Ka-Ching! Unfortuntely, I fled too soon and the stock has climbed out of the funk and currently sits at $59.60 with it's Timeliness restored to 1, Ka-Flunk? WhatSayYou?

Novo Nordisk (NVO) has been through a trough, but has climbed out of it now. It's always been in the black for me though, and is currently at $55.42, a gain of 6.53%, Ka-Ching. As I've said before, they also paid out a $0.96 dividend, equivalent of a 1.78% return, double Ka-Ching.

I also converted another stock in the Potentials list into a Buy. Picked up a batch of Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) at $53.00. It is currently priced at $58.35 giving me a 10.02% gain, Ka-Ching. When I bought it it had a Timeliness of 1, it has since dropped to 2. Here are rest of the details.

Name:                                Paychex, Inc

Industry:                            IT Services

Symbol:                              PAYX
Timeliness:                        2
Safety:                               1
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $53.00
Dividend Yield:                  3.11%
Industry Rank:                   14
Low Gain Estimate:            25%
High Gain Estimate:           45%

As you can see, it still looks like a healthy stock to hold on to.

I converted MGE Energy (MGEE) to a Buy in late March and bought a small parcel at $50.06. The stock has done well since then and is currently selling at $55.98 (after a bad couple of days) and still showing a gain of 11.67%. They also paid out a $0.295 dividend in May, making this another double Ka-Ching stock. But the market is fickle and so are investors (like me), MGE Energy (MGEE) has dropped to a Timeliness of 2 in the Valueline survey and I believe I've found a better alternative in this industry segment.

Name:                                CenterPoint Energy Inc

Industry:                            Electric Utility (Central)

Symbol:                              CNP
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          2
Approximate Price:            $23.47
Dividend Yield:                  4.35%
Industry Rank:                   3
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           25%

CenterPoint Energy (CNP) is a better stock in the same industry in many respects. It has a higher Timeliness, better potential for price increase, almost double dividend yeild, and half the price. I have added this stock into the portfolio with a Buy at $23.4805, and it is currently flat. I plan to Sell my batch of MGE Energy (MGEE) right after it passes its ex-dividend date, so I can get another dividend payout, Ka-Ching.

Finally, I moved quickly from Potentials to Buy on another good dividend paying stock that seems to have a solid track record for paying (increasing) dividends over a long time. 

Name:                                Reynolds American, Inc

Industry:                            Tobacco

Symbol:                              RAI
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               2
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $49.02
Dividend Yield:                  3.69%
Industry Rank:                   17
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           30%

Solid fundamentals, and a Buy price of $49.6521; current price $48.99, well within the normal fluctuations to call flat. But folks, I have sinned, by buying a so-called "sin stock", a tobacco stock. WhatSayYou?.

Anyway, this has been a long update because of the inexcusable hiatus between posts, and I have given you a lot to contemplate. If you've taken the time to read to the end, I'd love it if you leave a comment and let me know what you think of the couple of WhatSayYou? questions in the post, or anything else.

Thanks for coming back.

Over and Out!

The Curse Has Been Broken!!

And there goes my amazing business idea...

This week Wendy's (WEN) bucked the trend and broke the "curse" and did not drop in price. My perfect record is broken and I can no longer offer my services for bringing down a stock price with my toxic touch. One bit of shadow on this stock is that the industry rank for Restaurants has dropped from 16 to 20 and the Timeliness of the stock has dropped from 2 to 3. So maybe, just maybe, my poisonous recommendation power is still in force? WhatSayYou? I guess based on this bad news I have no choice but to declare the stock Dropped from the Potentials list.

MGE Energy (MGEE) also managed to hold off the curse and have a good week holding steady at the price at which I listed it as a Potentials pick. Additionally, the industry group that this company represents jumped from a Valueline rank of 7 to a rank of 3, and the company's Technical rank was upgraded to 1 (best). This stock is looking even better now. I guess this high energy stock has the power to resist my toxic touch. This stock is very likely going to convert into a Buy in the coming week.

The report for the current portfolio is also good this week.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) had a great week rising to $737.60 putting me back in the black on one of my batches, Ka-Ching! 

Fresh Del-Monte (FDP) had a flat-to-slightly down week and ended at $41.87, still leaving me with a 5% gain, Ka-Ching. More good news, on March 7th, the stock paid out a $0.125 dividend, the equivalent of 0.29%. Sadly, the stock has dropped to a Timeliness rating of 3, meaning it's time to get out.  

Novo Nordisk (NVO) had a down week going from little over $57 to $54.61 by the end of the week, also leaving me with almost a 5% gain, Ka-Ching. In other news they paid out a $0.96 dividend, equivalent of a 1.78% return, offsetting the drop in price, double Ka-Ching.

With so much churn in my Potentials and Portfolio, I didn't get time to research new recommendations, so nothing on that front this time.

Thanks for reading.

A Country Jig about Interest Rates!!

This is a video I heard about on my favorite money podcast, Marketplace, and had to share. It's a hoot!

Enjoy:

Would I rather eat Wendy's or McDonald's?

Given my well "proven" Ownership Bias, this week has me asking the question, would I rather eat Wendy's (WEN) food or McDonald's (MCD) food. To tell the truth I would prefer to not eat either, but both these companies are showing enough promise to be on my Potentials list. Because I don't want to put all my proverbial eggs in the same Restaurant business basket, I am forced to pick one of these fast food giants. The advantages of McDonald's (MCD) over Wendy's (WEN) are obvious due to its size and customer affinity, but the smaller chain seems to have a bigger possible upside, so I am going to go with Wendy's (WEN) as my first Potentials pick this week. Here are the vital statistics:

Name:                               Wendy's Co.

Industry:                            Restaurant
Symbol:                              WEN
Timeliness:                        2
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          2
Approximate Price:            $9.39
Dividend Yield:                  2.5%
Industry Rank:                  16
Low Gain Estimate:            25%
High Gain Estimate:           90%

Pretty good numbers; reasonably priced, a decent dividend yield, and a solid growth potential to boot. If I were to believe Valueline, and I do, buying in will result in an 8-18% return on investment between price appreciation and dividend. Makes for an attractive company to bite into. 

Another stock that seems to be powerful at the moment is MGE Energy (MGEE).

Name:                                MGE Energy

Industry:                            Electric Utility (Central)
Symbol:                              MGEE
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               1
Technical:                          2
Approximate Price:            $50.12
Dividend Yield:                  2.4%
Industry Rank:                   7
Low Gain Estimate:            5%
High Gain Estimate:           15%

Looking at the numbers, this does not look very attractive, but the company appears prominently on the Valueline report. First it's a Timeliness 1 company, in an industry that is rated highly (7/97) ranking, plus a decent dividend and growth potential, make this a worthy purchase. Between all of this it is expected to return between 4-7% annually.

I have one more company to add to the Potentials list, but it is a weaker case and so I want to research it some more before I mention it here. I hope to get to that by the time I write my next post.

I have no Buys to report, so let's move on to this weeks performance report.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) continues to struggle and is once again below $700 at $693 and change getting a Ka-Flunk rating. Still believe in this one and still holding on tight.

Fresh Del Monte (FDP) continues to serve up sweet rewards sitting at $42.01 even after a bit of a down day today. With a gain of about 18% it earns a solid Ka-Ching rating.

Novo Nordisk (NVO) also continues to pull out of the curse and ended the day today at $56.36, also after a down day. Now showing an 8.2% gain it also earns a Ka-Ching rating.

That's all for today.

Thanks for reading.

Wednesday, March 2nd, 2016

Back again after a brief break.

I realize that I had planned to write a post once a week for this series, but given the limited size of my investment pool I found that I had nothing to write about on a weekly basis. So here I am after a bit of a hiatus with an update on my (mis)adventures.

Since the last time I wrote a few interesting events have transpired. 

One of my biggest Buy, Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) overtook Apple (AAPL) to become the company with the largest market capitalization effectively making it the biggest company in the world! But this major achievement has not helped the stock price keep growing. It currently sits at $718.85 well below the average price of my purchases. In the past week it has been well below $700 and so this is not as bad as it has been, but GOOG still earns a Ka-Flunk rating.

Fresh Del Monte (FDP) has been a bright spot in my portfolio. Currently sitting at $41.79 it is well above my Buy price of $35.54 and earns a Ka-Ching rating. Also the company sits well with some strategic moves that are likely to help it grow in the future.

Another update is that I converted one of my Potentials into a Buy. As you might recall, I had added Novo Nordisk (NVO) to my list of potential buys and it had immediately been struck by the "curse". Even still, I believed in the company and watched it as it struggled with the effects of the bad news. The stock dropped from around $55 all the way down to about $46 and in a couple of weeks had recovered to be back above $50. At that point I figured, the markets had forgiven and forgotten, and jumped in to Buy paying $52.03 per share. The current price is $53.07 giving me a narrow gain and also earning a Ka-Ching rating.

Meanwhile my sitting-on-the-fence stock Cal-Maine (CALM) keeps on laying golden eggs and is now priced at $54.91. I had the opportunity to buy in near $47, but I chickened out again (see what I did there?). Anyway, the Goose is still alive and well and I may yet buy it if I get the opportunity.

That's all I have in this installment...
Cheers!