Monday, January 8, 2018

2017 Was A No Good, Horrible, Terrible Year!

2017 was a Terrible Year! 

Not for the reasons you are thinking I am referring to, not even for my stock portfolio. 2017 was a terrible year for this blog. I managed to write exactly one post in about the middle of the year, and nothing else.

Well, it's a new year and 2018 feels a lot more promising. For one, it's just January and I am already writing my first post. Also, the market seems to be in a mood to continue it's crazy run this year.

Overall, I am a bit nervous due to the meteoric rise of the market last year. I'm worried we are at the cusp of another bubble and everyone is too busy enjoying the ride up to notice if we are heading for a cliff. I am trying to be optimistic and paranoid at the same time; this might drive me crazy, but it also might make for some interesting blog posts.

My next post will be taking stock of my portfolio, it will be a good way to start off the year. I hope you will climb back on the ride with me WhatSayYou? and I promise to write on a more regular basis this year.

On to a wonderful 2018!

Sunday, May 14, 2017

New Beginning

Another hiatus, another beginning.

This post will just take stock of where things are after this long absense. See what I did there, yup bad humor, a "dad joke" there to remind you how much you love to read my posts.

Moving on...

The portfolio is doing much better than it was when I last wrote about it, Ka-Ching, and there have been some purchases and sales. The one constant is that Novo Nordisk (NVO) is still suffering from its disastrous dive into negative territory Ka-Flunk. All the other stocks still in the portfolio are ahead and looking stable, if not looking up.

On to sales and purchases;

I've sold one stock from the portfolio. Happy to report that it was sold at a good profit (30%). MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) had started to stall out and the long term outlook for it was starting to look less than attractive. Also I have another stock in that industry in CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP).

Two new purchases have been added to the portfolio. Remember the time I missed out on the Gold Rush? Well, I redeemed myself by catching another precious metal company at the right time; and this time I did not chicken out. Tahoe Resources Inc. (TAHO) is primarily a silver mining company, and is rated highly in the Valueline survey, with a good dividend, and a solid 3-5 year price increase potential. Oh and Royal Gold (RGLD), my "Gold Rush: missed opportunity" is currently priced below the good price that I almost bought it at, so that worked out in hindsight. The other purchase in the portfolio is Hanesbrand Inc. (HBI). This stock shows up in a couple of lists of significance in the Valueline survey; Timely Stocks and Highest Growth Stocks. Currently Tahoe Resources Inc. (TAHO) is showing a 10% profit Ka-Ching, but Hanesbrand Inc. (HBI) is showing a small loss ~3% Ka-Flunk, so the new purchases are a mixed bag.

I am also looking at a couple of Potentials, which I will cover in the next post.

Thanks for continuing to follow my (mis)adventures.
That's all folks!

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Gold Rush: A Missed Opportunity

It was like it was 1848 and I had a ticket for the train to California, but I was afraid and didn't get on ... and now it's 1856. The Gold Rush has passed me by.

As you may (or may not) have read in my last post, I had put Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) into my list of Potentials, and decided to convert it to a Buy soon. Right after this call, the stock went into a free fall as expected, refer to "The Curse", The stock dropped from ~$83 all the way down below $75 and I thought, here's my chance, but alas, I panicked. I decided to wait just a bit to see if it would continue to drop further. Nope. It roared back and in a matter of a couple of days has made it back to over $84, creating a missed opportunity that I will remember for ever. Or at least until the next big thing on this adventure. Chalk one up to Fear.

Meanwhile, everything else in my portfolio is also doing well, or better than before for stocks that were doing badly. Here's a quick rundown on the highlights.

Paychex Inc. (PAYX) is doing even better at $61.84 with a 15%+ gain. Same for MGE Energy (MGEE) currently showing a gain of 12.6%. Ka-Ching.

On the other side, Novo Nordisk (NVO) is still struggling at a loss of 11.6%, Ka-Flunk, but CenterPoint Energy (CNP) has recovered enough to be back to a flat status with a loss of just $38 (0.81%).

No new Potentials this time, but Boston Scientific (BSX) is still a good possibility, and maybe I can get into the Klondike Gold Rush with Royal Gold (RGLD).

See how I worked a history lesson into that post? You like? WhatSayYou?

As always, thanks for reading.

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Surprise, Surprise!!

"Surprise, Surprise", not as in the classic cliche, but a period of two surprises! Read on for details...

The first surprise was Novo Nordisk (NVO) which after reporting earning took a dive on August 5th, dropping $6 on open and then another $2 the next day. I am still trying to figure out what caused this crash, because the earnings were actually better than expected. OK, after a bit of digging I've discovered that their diabetes drug (Victoza) did not do as well as expected; it was 13% better than current drugs, but the expectation was for 15% better. :-( All told, the 2% shortfall in the expectations for the drug has cost me an almost 10% deficit in my stock's value. Ka-Flunk. Reading more details I've discovered that another cause of the downturn is the company revising it's forecast down by about 2%. The Timeliness of this stock has also dropped to an average 3, but the company is still solid. This will be one stock I will be monitoring a lot more closely.

On the happy side of the surprises, MGE Energy (MGEE) has done well since I decided to replace it with CenterPoint Energy (CNP). They announced a hike in the dividend rate, their 41st consecutive year doing so. The dividend is payable on September 15th for stock holders of record on September 1st, so if you are thinking about this one, now is the time. the stock has also appreciated in price recently currently sitting at $56.55 showing a solid 12.81% gain for me. Ka-Ching!

CenterPoint Energy (CNP) meanwhile is struggling to take off from my purchase price and sitting slightly under water, showing a 3.28% loss. The fundamentals of the stock are still strong though and it's approaching Ka-Flunk territory, but not yet in the GetOutNow range.

Looking ahead to a couple of Potentials; currently a lot of the industries at the top of the Valueline surveys rankings stocks are in the energy or utilities sector. And because I am already invested in these industries, I've had a difficult time finding good Potentials. The two that I have found bend the rules a bit, but still have good potential.

The first is Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD):
Name:                                Royal Gold Inc.
Industry:                            Precious Metals
Symbol:                              RGLD
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $75.93
Dividend Yield:                  1.1%
Industry Rank:                   1
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           45%

This stock is worthy of consideration for a few reasons. First, it's a Timeliness (1)  stock in the highest ranking industry. Next, it's a high growth stock showing an at least 10% growth in multiple fundamentals like sales growth, cash flow, earnings, dividends etc, and the forward looking estimates are just as strong. Finally, and this is the weakest reason, the current chart shows that the stock is likely to drop a bit after achieving a double peak chart pattern, so it might be a good time to get some. The only thing I don't like about it is the P/E Ratio which is at a staggering 56.7!! Is that too much? WhatSayYou? I might consider converting this to a Buy soon.

The other is Boston Scientific (BSX):
Name:                                Boston Scientific Inc.
Industry:                            Medical Supplies Invasive
Symbol:                              BSX
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $23.77
Dividend Yield:                  0%
Industry Rank:                   3
Low Gain Estimate:            25%
High Gain Estimate:           90%

Again, a good stock with solid fundamentals, that also shows up in the list of stocks with enough cash flow to operate and pay dividends and still have money left over for over 5 years. It is priced reasonably, which will allow me to grab a good parcel. The only thing I don't like about this one? No dividends... in spite of having the money to pay it. Boo!  Still, the other numbers are good and this is another stock that I might pick up soon.

That's all for this post folks, thanks for reading.
I hope you leave me some comments if you are a regular reader or even if you are a first timer.

Saturday, August 20, 2016

New Features in the Side Panel

I've added a few new features to the side panel to make assessing the success(failure) of my (mis)adventures easy to see at a single glance.

First, I've added a Current Performance block that lists the currently best and worst performing stocks in the portfolio along with the cumulative rate of return of the entire (mis)adventure.

Next, I've added a list of stocks that are currently in the portfolio in the most recent buy first format. Each stock is listed with its purchase price, so you can see where it started in the portfolio.

And finally, I've added a list of stocks that used to be in the portfolio and I have sold. Each entry is tagged with the gain(loss) that I took from from the sale . These are also listed in the most recently sold order.

Hope these additions make it easier for you to admire(mock) my wisdom or lack thereof in this (mis)adventure. WhatSayYou?

Wednesday, August 3, 2016

Is There Anybody Out There?

I know, I know, it's been a while. 

But I do have a couple of excuses:

  1. I got lazy; what can I say, happens to the best of us.
  2. LIFE; like travel, a studio shutdown, layoff, job search, new job, etc., you know, simple stuff.
In any case, thanks for coming back to read my (mis)adventures. 

Let's dive right into it.
A lot has changed since I last wrote a post, so here are the updates.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) has been up and down, but currently stands at $769.89 putting me in the black on my average price with a gain of 4.65%, Ka-Ching

Fresh Del Monte (FDP) dropped in Timeliness and I decided to get out and Sell before things turned sour. I closed out my position at $41.833 locking in a gain of 5,44%, Ka-Ching! Unfortuntely, I fled too soon and the stock has climbed out of the funk and currently sits at $59.60 with it's Timeliness restored to 1, Ka-Flunk? WhatSayYou?

Novo Nordisk (NVO) has been through a trough, but has climbed out of it now. It's always been in the black for me though, and is currently at $55.42, a gain of 6.53%, Ka-Ching. As I've said before, they also paid out a $0.96 dividend, equivalent of a 1.78% return, double Ka-Ching.

I also converted another stock in the Potentials list into a Buy. Picked up a batch of Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) at $53.00. It is currently priced at $58.35 giving me a 10.02% gain, Ka-Ching. When I bought it it had a Timeliness of 1, it has since dropped to 2. Here are rest of the details.

Name                               Paychex, Inc
Industry:                            IT Services
Symbol:                              PAYX
Timeliness:                        2
Safety:                               1
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $53.00
Dividend Yield:                  3.11%
Industry Rank:                   14
Low Gain Estimate:            25%
High Gain Estimate:           45%

As you can see, it still looks like a healthy stock to hold on to.

I converted MGE Energy (MGEE) to a Buy in late March and bought a small parcel at $50.06. The stock has done well since then and is currently selling at $55.98 (after a bad couple of days) and still showing a gain of 11.67%. They also paid out a $0.295 dividend in May, making this another double Ka-Ching stock. But the market is fickle and so are investors (like me), MGE Energy (MGEE) has dropped to a Timeliness of 2 in the Valueline survey and I believe I've found a better alternative in this industry segment.

Name                               CenterPoint Energy Inc
Industry:                            Electric Utility (Central)
Symbol:                              CNP
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          2
Approximate Price:            $23.47
Dividend Yield:                  4.35%
Industry Rank:                   3
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           25%

CenterPoint Energy (CNP) is a better stock in the same industry in many respects. It has a higher Timeliness, better potential for price increase, almost double dividend yeild, and half the price. I have added this stock into the portfolio with a Buy at $23.4805, and it is currently flat. I plan to Sell my batch of MGE Energy (MGEE) right after it passes its ex-dividend date, so I can get another dividend payout, Ka-Ching.

Finally, I moved quickly from Potentials to Buy on another good dividend paying stock that seems to have a solid track record for paying (increasing) dividends over a long time. 

Name                               Reynolds American, Inc
Industry:                            Tobacco
Symbol:                              RAI
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               2
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $49.02
Dividend Yield:                  3.69%
Industry Rank:                   17
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           30%

Solid fundamentals, and a Buy price of $49.6521; current price $48.99, well within the normal fluctuations to call flat. But folks, I have sinned, by buying a so-called "sin stock", a tobacco stock. WhatSayYou?.

Anyway, this has been a long update because of the inexcusable hiatus between posts, and I have given you a lot to contemplate. If you've taken the time to read to the end, I'd love it if you leave a comment and let me know what you think of the couple of WhatSayYou? questions in the post, or anything else.

Thanks for coming back.
Over and Out!

Sunday, March 20, 2016

The Curse Has Been Broken!!

And there goes my amazing business idea...

This week Wendy's (WEN) bucked the trend and broke the "curse" and did not drop in price. My perfect record is broken and I can no longer offer my services for bringing down a stock price with my toxic touch. One bit of shadow on this stock is that the industry rank for Restaurants has dropped from 16 to 20 and the Timeliness of the stock has dropped from 2 to 3. So maybe, just maybe, my poisonous recommendation power is still in force? WhatSayYou? I guess based on this bad news I have no choice but to declare the stock Dropped from the Potentials list.

MGE Energy (MGEE) also managed to hold off the curse and have a good week holding steady at the price at which I listed it as a Potentials pick. Additionally, the industry group that this company represents jumped from a Valueline rank of 7 to a rank of 3, and the company's Technical rank was upgraded to 1 (best). This stock is looking even better now. I guess this high energy stock has the power to resist my toxic touch. This stock is very likely going to convert into a Buy in the coming week.

The report for the current portfolio is also good this week.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) had a great week rising to $737.60 putting me back in the black on one of my batches, Ka-Ching

Fresh Del-Monte (FDP) had a flat-to-slightly down week and ended at $41.87, still leaving me with a 5% gain, Ka-Ching. More good news, on March 7th, the stock paid out a $0.125 dividend, the equivalent of 0.29%. Sadly, the stock has dropped to a Timeliness rating of 3, meaning it's time to get out.  

Novo Nordisk (NVO) had a down week going from little over $57 to $54.61 by the end of the week, also leaving me with almost a 5% gain, Ka-Ching. In other news they paid out a $0.96 dividend, equivalent of a 1.78% return, offsetting the drop in price, double Ka-Ching.

With so much churn in my Potentials and Portfolio, I didn't get time to research new recommendations, so nothing on that front this time.

Thanks for reading.