Sell, Sell, Sell

After two posts full of thoughts It's Hard to Say Goodbye... and ...Goodbye Again about selling stocks, I am back to the reporting about stock transactions. And what am I going to talk about? Stocks I just sold of course! Sell, Sell, Sell as the title says!!

I got rid of a few stocks in the past week or so, most of them at a good profit, one at a loss based on some of the thoughts I presented in the last two blog posts. All of these stocks are not represented in this blog because they were purchased before I began documenting my (mis)adventures. Here are the details:

The first was Amarin Corp. PLC (AMRN). This was a stock that had been sitting at the bottom of the ocean for a few years. A biotech stock that I first bought when they were at the verge of a breakthrough drug. Unfortunately, this was a case of being hit by hidden information. The drug failed, and the stock tanked dropping from my purchase price of ~$13 to between $2 and $3, where it has stayed for a few years. Then suddenly a couple of weeks ago the stock rocketed up to over $16. Once again hidden info, this time working for me; a drug they tested turns out to be very effective and with no side effects. Using a trailing stop I got out a little above $16 for an approximate gain of 23%. Ka-Ching.

Next, Apollo Global Management (APO) an asset management company I had bought when it was highly rated in the Valueline survey. It was showing a good profit but had since dropped out of favor in Valueline and it was time to get out. Another exit via a trailing stop, sold at a little above $34.50 for a net gain of about 26%. Ka-Ching.

Another money maker was Scholastic Corp. (SCHL). This is the beloved publishing company, most famously known for stories they published about a most famous wizard named Harry Potter. Perhaps you've heard of this book series!! The company is doing well, but the stock had run out of magic, so it was time to get out. A sell at almost $45 gave me a boost of a little over 17%. Ka-Ching.

Then comes the heart-breaker, Atlantic Power Corp (AT) a power/utility company that was rated highly, wasn't a price mover, but a company that paid a good dividend. Then things turned sour. I stuck around a bit in the hope that things would recover. But a few years passed with no signs of a price recovery. Then the straw that broke the camel's back... dividend went to zero. It was time to take my lumps. A sell out at $2.20 and a loss of 50%. :-( Ka-Flunk.

The Perils of Inattention

Investing in the stock market is a bit like being a gladiator in a multi-person free-for-all fight. You have to constantly be on the guard and keep your eyes on all the other fighters in the arena. A little bit of inattention and you will find yourself clobbered from all sides.

This is what happened to my portfolio in the time that I stopped to smell the roses that the audience has been throwing at me... In the last eight months I've had some losses from stocks that had looked good when I bought them.

Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO) is down 8.40%, Hanesbrand Inc (HBI) is down 15.01%, and the bottom fell out from Tahoe Resources, Inc (TAHO) down 66.02% because they lost the rights to a silver mine that was critical. Ka-Flunk.

It's not all bad news though, the rest of the portfolio is doing quite well and overall the portfolio is in better shape than when I last posted. I won't bore you with the details of the good news, so you can breathe easy. Ka-Ching.

Renolds American [RAI -- no link] was removed from the portfolio because it got acquired in an all-cash deal and does not exist as a company anymore. But it left me with a 33.02% gain. Ka-Ching.

One change you might notice in the blog going forward is that all the stock links will now take you to Yahoo Finance instead of Google Finance (no link). This is in protest for the "upgrade" that the folks at Alphabet have given Google Finance, effectively eviscerating that site of any usefulness it had before.

In the next week I will have some Potentials and some Buys that I plan to write about. Hope you will find me again and continue to follow my (mis)adventures.

Cheers! 

New Beginning

Another hiatus, another beginning.

This post will just take stock of where things are after this long absense. See what I did there, yup bad humor, a "dad joke" there to remind you how much you love to read my posts.

Moving on...

The portfolio is doing much better than it was when I last wrote about it, Ka-Ching, and there have been some purchases and sales. The one constant is that Novo Nordisk (NVO) is still suffering from its disastrous dive into negative territory Ka-Flunk. All the other stocks still in the portfolio are ahead and looking stable, if not looking up.

On to sales and purchases;

I've sold one stock from the portfolio. Happy to report that it was sold at a good profit (30%). MGE Energy, Inc. (MGEE) had started to stall out and the long term outlook for it was starting to look less than attractive. Also I have another stock in that industry in CenterPoint Energy, Inc. (CNP).

Two new purchases have been added to the portfolio. Remember the time I missed out on the Gold Rush? Well, I redeemed myself by catching another precious metal company at the right time; and this time I did not chicken out. Tahoe Resources Inc. (TAHO) is primarily a silver mining company, and is rated highly in the Valueline survey, with a good dividend, and a solid 3-5 year price increase potential. Oh and Royal Gold (RGLD), my "Gold Rush: missed opportunity" is currently priced below the good price that I almost bought it at, so that worked out in hindsight. The other purchase in the portfolio is Hanesbrand Inc. (HBI). This stock shows up in a couple of lists of significance in the Valueline survey; Timely Stocks and Highest Growth Stocks. Currently Tahoe Resources Inc. (TAHO) is showing a 10% profit Ka-Ching, but Hanesbrand Inc. (HBI) is showing a small loss ~3% Ka-Flunk, so the new purchases are a mixed bag.

I am also looking at a couple of Potentials, which I will cover in the next post.

Thanks for continuing to follow my (mis)adventures.
That's all folks!

Gold Rush: A Missed Opportunity

It was like it was 1848 and I had a ticket for the train to California, but I was afraid and didn't get on ... and now it's 1856. The Gold Rush has passed me by.

As you may (or may not) have read in my last post, I had put Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) into my list of Potentials, and decided to convert it to a Buy soon. Right after this call, the stock went into a free fall as expected, refer to "The Curse", The stock dropped from ~$83 all the way down below $75 and I thought, here's my chance, but alas, I panicked. I decided to wait just a bit to see if it would continue to drop further. Nope. It roared back and in a matter of a couple of days has made it back to over $84, creating a missed opportunity that I will remember for ever. Or at least until the next big thing on this adventure. Chalk one up to Fear.

Meanwhile, everything else in my portfolio is also doing well, or better than before for stocks that were doing badly. Here's a quick rundown on the highlights.

Paychex Inc. (PAYX) is doing even better at $61.84 with a 15%+ gain. Same for MGE Energy (MGEE) currently showing a gain of 12.6%. Ka-Ching.

On the other side, Novo Nordisk (NVO) is still struggling at a loss of 11.6%, Ka-Flunk, but CenterPoint Energy (CNP) has recovered enough to be back to a flat status with a loss of just $38 (0.81%).

No new Potentials this time, but Boston Scientific (BSX) is still a good possibility, and maybe I can get into the Klondike Gold Rush with Royal Gold (RGLD).

See how I worked a history lesson into that post? You like? WhatSayYou?

As always, thanks for reading.

Surprise, Surprise!!

"Surprise, Surprise", not as in the classic cliche, but a period of two surprises! Read on for details...

The first surprise was Novo Nordisk (NVO) which after reporting earning took a dive on August 5th, dropping $6 on open and then another $2 the next day. I am still trying to figure out what caused this crash, because the earnings were actually better than expected. OK, after a bit of digging I've discovered that their diabetes drug (Victoza) did not do as well as expected; it was 13% better than current drugs, but the expectation was for 15% better. :-( All told, the 2% shortfall in the expectations for the drug has cost me an almost 10% deficit in my stock's value. Ka-Flunk. Reading more details I've discovered that another cause of the downturn is the company revising it's forecast down by about 2%. The Timeliness of this stock has also dropped to an average 3, but the company is still solid. This will be one stock I will be monitoring a lot more closely.

On the happy side of the surprises, MGE Energy (MGEE) has done well since I decided to replace it with CenterPoint Energy (CNP). They announced a hike in the dividend rate, their 41st consecutive year doing so. The dividend is payable on September 15th for stock holders of record on September 1st, so if you are thinking about this one, now is the time. the stock has also appreciated in price recently currently sitting at $56.55 showing a solid 12.81% gain for me. Ka-Ching!

CenterPoint Energy (CNP) meanwhile is struggling to take off from my purchase price and sitting slightly under water, showing a 3.28% loss. The fundamentals of the stock are still strong though and it's approaching Ka-Flunk territory, but not yet in the GetOutNow range.

Looking ahead to a couple of Potentials; currently a lot of the industries at the top of the Valueline surveys rankings stocks are in the energy or utilities sector. And because I am already invested in these industries, I've had a difficult time finding good Potentials. The two that I have found bend the rules a bit, but still have good potential.

The first is Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD):
Name:                                Royal Gold Inc.
Industry:                            Precious Metals
Symbol:                              RGLD
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $75.93
Dividend Yield:                  1.1%
Industry Rank:                   1
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           45%

This stock is worthy of consideration for a few reasons. First, it's a Timeliness (1)  stock in the highest ranking industry. Next, it's a high growth stock showing an at least 10% growth in multiple fundamentals like sales growth, cash flow, earnings, dividends etc, and the forward looking estimates are just as strong. Finally, and this is the weakest reason, the current chart shows that the stock is likely to drop a bit after achieving a double peak chart pattern, so it might be a good time to get some. The only thing I don't like about it is the P/E Ratio which is at a staggering 56.7!! Is that too much? WhatSayYou? I might consider converting this to a Buy soon.

The other is Boston Scientific (BSX):
Name:                                Boston Scientific Inc.
Industry:                            Medical Supplies Invasive
Symbol:                              BSX
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $23.77
Dividend Yield:                  0%
Industry Rank:                   3
Low Gain Estimate:            25%
High Gain Estimate:           90%

Again, a good stock with solid fundamentals, that also shows up in the list of stocks with enough cash flow to operate and pay dividends and still have money left over for over 5 years. It is priced reasonably, which will allow me to grab a good parcel. The only thing I don't like about this one? No dividends... in spite of having the money to pay it. Boo!  Still, the other numbers are good and this is another stock that I might pick up soon.

That's all for this post folks, thanks for reading.
I hope you leave me some comments if you are a regular reader or even if you are a first timer.

Is There Anybody Out There?

I know, I know, it's been a while. 

But I do have a couple of excuses:

1. I got lazy; what can I say, happens to the best of us.
2. LIFE; like travel, a studio shutdown, layoff, job search, new job, etc., you know, simple stuff.

In any case, thanks for coming back to read my (mis)adventures. 

Let's dive right into it.

A lot has changed since I last wrote a post, so here are the updates.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) has been up and down, but currently stands at $769.89 putting me in the black on my average price with a gain of 4.65%, Ka-Ching! 

Fresh Del Monte (FDP) dropped in Timeliness and I decided to get out and Sell before things turned sour. I closed out my position at $41.833 locking in a gain of 5,44%, Ka-Ching! Unfortuntely, I fled too soon and the stock has climbed out of the funk and currently sits at $59.60 with it's Timeliness restored to 1, Ka-Flunk? WhatSayYou?

Novo Nordisk (NVO) has been through a trough, but has climbed out of it now. It's always been in the black for me though, and is currently at $55.42, a gain of 6.53%, Ka-Ching. As I've said before, they also paid out a $0.96 dividend, equivalent of a 1.78% return, double Ka-Ching.

I also converted another stock in the Potentials list into a Buy. Picked up a batch of Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) at $53.00. It is currently priced at $58.35 giving me a 10.02% gain, Ka-Ching. When I bought it it had a Timeliness of 1, it has since dropped to 2. Here are rest of the details.

Name:                                Paychex, Inc

Industry:                            IT Services

Symbol:                              PAYX
Timeliness:                        2
Safety:                               1
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $53.00
Dividend Yield:                  3.11%
Industry Rank:                   14
Low Gain Estimate:            25%
High Gain Estimate:           45%

As you can see, it still looks like a healthy stock to hold on to.

I converted MGE Energy (MGEE) to a Buy in late March and bought a small parcel at $50.06. The stock has done well since then and is currently selling at $55.98 (after a bad couple of days) and still showing a gain of 11.67%. They also paid out a $0.295 dividend in May, making this another double Ka-Ching stock. But the market is fickle and so are investors (like me), MGE Energy (MGEE) has dropped to a Timeliness of 2 in the Valueline survey and I believe I've found a better alternative in this industry segment.

Name:                                CenterPoint Energy Inc

Industry:                            Electric Utility (Central)

Symbol:                              CNP
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          2
Approximate Price:            $23.47
Dividend Yield:                  4.35%
Industry Rank:                   3
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           25%

CenterPoint Energy (CNP) is a better stock in the same industry in many respects. It has a higher Timeliness, better potential for price increase, almost double dividend yeild, and half the price. I have added this stock into the portfolio with a Buy at $23.4805, and it is currently flat. I plan to Sell my batch of MGE Energy (MGEE) right after it passes its ex-dividend date, so I can get another dividend payout, Ka-Ching.

Finally, I moved quickly from Potentials to Buy on another good dividend paying stock that seems to have a solid track record for paying (increasing) dividends over a long time. 

Name:                                Reynolds American, Inc

Industry:                            Tobacco

Symbol:                              RAI
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               2
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $49.02
Dividend Yield:                  3.69%
Industry Rank:                   17
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           30%

Solid fundamentals, and a Buy price of $49.6521; current price $48.99, well within the normal fluctuations to call flat. But folks, I have sinned, by buying a so-called "sin stock", a tobacco stock. WhatSayYou?.

Anyway, this has been a long update because of the inexcusable hiatus between posts, and I have given you a lot to contemplate. If you've taken the time to read to the end, I'd love it if you leave a comment and let me know what you think of the couple of WhatSayYou? questions in the post, or anything else.

Thanks for coming back.

Over and Out!

Would I rather eat Wendy's or McDonald's?

Given my well "proven" Ownership Bias, this week has me asking the question, would I rather eat Wendy's (WEN) food or McDonald's (MCD) food. To tell the truth I would prefer to not eat either, but both these companies are showing enough promise to be on my Potentials list. Because I don't want to put all my proverbial eggs in the same Restaurant business basket, I am forced to pick one of these fast food giants. The advantages of McDonald's (MCD) over Wendy's (WEN) are obvious due to its size and customer affinity, but the smaller chain seems to have a bigger possible upside, so I am going to go with Wendy's (WEN) as my first Potentials pick this week. Here are the vital statistics:

Name:                               Wendy's Co.

Industry:                            Restaurant
Symbol:                              WEN
Timeliness:                        2
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          2
Approximate Price:            $9.39
Dividend Yield:                  2.5%
Industry Rank:                  16
Low Gain Estimate:            25%
High Gain Estimate:           90%

Pretty good numbers; reasonably priced, a decent dividend yield, and a solid growth potential to boot. If I were to believe Valueline, and I do, buying in will result in an 8-18% return on investment between price appreciation and dividend. Makes for an attractive company to bite into. 

Another stock that seems to be powerful at the moment is MGE Energy (MGEE).

Name:                                MGE Energy

Industry:                            Electric Utility (Central)
Symbol:                              MGEE
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               1
Technical:                          2
Approximate Price:            $50.12
Dividend Yield:                  2.4%
Industry Rank:                   7
Low Gain Estimate:            5%
High Gain Estimate:           15%

Looking at the numbers, this does not look very attractive, but the company appears prominently on the Valueline report. First it's a Timeliness 1 company, in an industry that is rated highly (7/97) ranking, plus a decent dividend and growth potential, make this a worthy purchase. Between all of this it is expected to return between 4-7% annually.

I have one more company to add to the Potentials list, but it is a weaker case and so I want to research it some more before I mention it here. I hope to get to that by the time I write my next post.

I have no Buys to report, so let's move on to this weeks performance report.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) continues to struggle and is once again below $700 at $693 and change getting a Ka-Flunk rating. Still believe in this one and still holding on tight.

Fresh Del Monte (FDP) continues to serve up sweet rewards sitting at $42.01 even after a bit of a down day today. With a gain of about 18% it earns a solid Ka-Ching rating.

Novo Nordisk (NVO) also continues to pull out of the curse and ended the day today at $56.36, also after a down day. Now showing an 8.2% gain it also earns a Ka-Ching rating.

That's all for today.

Thanks for reading.

Wednesday, March 2nd, 2016

Back again after a brief break.

I realize that I had planned to write a post once a week for this series, but given the limited size of my investment pool I found that I had nothing to write about on a weekly basis. So here I am after a bit of a hiatus with an update on my (mis)adventures.

Since the last time I wrote a few interesting events have transpired. 

One of my biggest Buy, Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) overtook Apple (AAPL) to become the company with the largest market capitalization effectively making it the biggest company in the world! But this major achievement has not helped the stock price keep growing. It currently sits at $718.85 well below the average price of my purchases. In the past week it has been well below $700 and so this is not as bad as it has been, but GOOG still earns a Ka-Flunk rating.

Fresh Del Monte (FDP) has been a bright spot in my portfolio. Currently sitting at $41.79 it is well above my Buy price of $35.54 and earns a Ka-Ching rating. Also the company sits well with some strategic moves that are likely to help it grow in the future.

Another update is that I converted one of my Potentials into a Buy. As you might recall, I had added Novo Nordisk (NVO) to my list of potential buys and it had immediately been struck by the "curse". Even still, I believed in the company and watched it as it struggled with the effects of the bad news. The stock dropped from around $55 all the way down to about $46 and in a couple of weeks had recovered to be back above $50. At that point I figured, the markets had forgiven and forgotten, and jumped in to Buy paying $52.03 per share. The current price is $53.07 giving me a narrow gain and also earning a Ka-Ching rating.

Meanwhile my sitting-on-the-fence stock Cal-Maine (CALM) keeps on laying golden eggs and is now priced at $54.91. I had the opportunity to buy in near $47, but I chickened out again (see what I did there?). Anyway, the Goose is still alive and well and I may yet buy it if I get the opportunity.

That's all I have in this installment...
Cheers!

Saturday, January 16th 2016

The market freefall continued in the previous week fueled by China, low crude oil prices, and the worry about the long terms effects of the Federal Reserve raising rates. 

All this meant that my previous week's Buy, GOOG continued its downswing and ended the week at $694.45, a significant further loss of investment, earning this week another Ka-Flunk rating. Still I am confident that the investment will pay off in the long term. A contrarian (read crazy) side of me is wondering if I should dig in deeper and buy some more. What would you do? Feel free to leave a comment and let me know WhatSayYou?.

Fortunately it was not all gloom and doom this week. Last week I found another stock for the Potentials list and immediately purchased it too, putting it into the Buy set. First the stats on the new find:

Name:                                Fresh Del Monte Products

Industry:                            Food Processing
Symbol:                              FDP
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                         2
Approximate Price:            $39
Dividend Yield:                  1.3%
Industry Rank:                  28
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           25%

Fresh Del Monte (FDP), is a familiar name if you shop for groceries anywhere in the United States. You probably know them from the Del Monte brand of canned fruit that you have most likely purchased. Although the dividend yeild is not stunning at only 1.3% and the potential gain is a bit on the lower side, this seems to be a solid stock to weather the current storms. Also, it just got a bump in its Timeliness, from 2 to 1 and the Technical (short term price variance) rating has been bouncing between 1 & 2. The Food Processing industry has also been bumped up from 35 last week to 28 this week making this stock a worthy Buy.

I managed to pick up a few at $39.54, and in spite of the rough week the stock ended the week $39.36. A fraction lower than my purchase price, but not to the tune of the drop in my GOOG holdings. I will be watching this one like a hawk and probably taking my gains as soon as they get above 10%.

And now for the Greek Tragedy of the week. For ( the 3 of you ) that have been following my (mis)adventures from the beginning of this year, you know that I have had Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) on my list of Potentials. Well, I have still not purchased it and put it into the Buy set. Then last week as the entire stock market was in free fall, CALM managed to reverse gravity and advanced almost $4 on the day the market dipped 500+ points!! It ended the week at $49.39 over $3 higher than the start of the week, a gain of about 6.5%. Sadly, I missed out on this goose which laid a golden egg this week.

That's all folks!

January 15th 2016: AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA...

...AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

Saturday, January 9th 2016

... Or a funny thing happened on the way to the market.

Two of my picks from last week CALM and FUN got downgraded by Valueline in the report that came out last week. CALM went from a Timeliness of 1 to 2 and FUN dropped from 2 to 3. This meant that FUN immediately Dropped out of my list of Potentials; I may consider it again if at a future date if it rises from the ashes. You know, with a stock symbol like FUN, how can you completely give up on it? 

CALM though is still on the Potentials list because a Timeliness of 2 is still considered a good or Timely stock in the Valueline universe. CALM also withstood the storm that came down on the market last week reasonably well, which is a great segue to the GREAT CHINESE MARKET DEBACLE of 2016.

The Chinese stock holders and the world in general have started to catch on to the hoax of the Chinese stock market. As a person of Indian origin, with a Chinese made knife still stuck deep in the back of my psyche, reference to the "हिंदी चीनी भाई भाई" ( Indians and Chinese are brothers ) days right before the Chinese People's Army attacked India, I have a deep suspicion of anything Chinese. So I am not surprised that the miracle of the Chinese stock market is just a mirage that is starting to fade.

Anyway, the instability meltdown of the Chinese market affected markets around the globe and I figured this would be a good time to buy some stocks that have dropped from their high perches. So, onward to the Buy(s) of the week.

I picked up a small quantity of GOOG at $744.475 and another small quantity of GOOG when the market dropped even further at $726.70. I thought this would be a good time to invest with the market on the downswing, but I underestimated the velocity of the downswing. The week ended with GOOG at $714.47 earning this week the Ka-Flunk label :-( . I am not worried about this because I believe the Google (Alphabet Inc.) is still a good investment and it will pay off.

Still on the list of Potentials is this stock from last week:

Name:                                Cal-Maine Foods

Industry:                            Food Processing
Symbol:                              CALM
Timeliness:                        2
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $46
Dividend Yield:                  6.6%
Industry Rank:                  35
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           45%

The Industry ranking has dropped 3 slots to 35, the estimated yield is down to 6.6%, and both the Timeliness and Technical Ranks have dropped by one. But the price appreciation has risen to 0-45% to match the price drop showing that the stock still has the same appreciation potential. Also the price is only down a few points to a little above $46, so the stock dealt with the China crisis quite well. This makes sense because the company has no real exposure to Chinese markets. All this keeps the stock in the running as a potential buy.

That's all folks...