A New Addition and a Couple of Potentials

Last week I added another stock to the portfolio. It's one that I found quite recently and shows good future potential. Also pays a solid 5% Dividends, and is rated at a 1 by Valueline.

Another thing going for this stock - I had a friend who is a financial analysis wonk run the numbers on this stock and he came back with an enthusiastic thumbs up. Now we are talking about creating a stock recommendation service with our pooled knowledge... but I digress. More on this at a later time.

Back to the new addition:

Name:                                BCE Inc.

Industry:                            Telecom Utility

Symbol:                              BCE
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               2
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $48.00
Dividend Yield:                  5.00%
Industry Rank:                   25
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           25%

The only thing lacking is a price gain potential, but add it to the Buy list.

I'm also looking at a couple more Potentials.

Name:                                Santander Consumer

Industry:                            Financial Svcs. (Div.)

Symbol:                              SC
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          1
Approximate Price:            $23.00
Dividend Yield:                  3.7%
Industry Rank:                   12
Low Gain Estimate:            25%
High Gain Estimate:           110%

Not much you can complain about with this stock.

And one that I could not find in the Valueline survey:

Name:                                Nuveen Municipal High Income Opportunity Fund

Industry:                            Municipal Bonds (?)

Symbol:                              NMZ
Timeliness:                        ?
Safety:                               ?
Technical:                          ?
Approximate Price:            $14.00
Dividend Yield:                  5.00%
Industry Rank:                   ?
Low Gain Estimate:            ? %
High Gain Estimate:           ? %

This is a bond fund that invests in municipal bonds so the Dividends it pays are tax free, meaning they are more than they appear to be by your tax bracket.

I am actively looking at adding both these to the portfolio soon.

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Buying Spree ... wheeeee!

Another down day, another set of purchases. Now I'm starting to worry myself. Today I took the leap and converted the two stocks in yesterday's post They've Got Potential into Buys.

And I have a new stock to add into the Potentials pool. This one is in the Telecom Services industry and currently out of reach of the tariff war between USA and the rest of the world. It's highly rated and pays a handsome dividend (one of my favorite attributes of a stock), and with a recent merger it owns about 45% market share of the mobile phone service in India a market that is still growing.

Here are the details:

Name:                                Vodafone Group ADR

Industry:                            Telecom Sevices

Symbol:                              VOD
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          4
Approximate Price:            $22.00
Dividend Yield:                  7.96%
Industry Rank:                   47
Low Gain Estimate:            65%
High Gain Estimate:           160%

I am bullish about the potential of this stock, obviously, but I think it's with good reason.

They've Got Potential

A few stocks have emerged in my latest research screening that I am putting into my Potentials list. I managed to snag one of them yesterday when it was a down day; I wrote about it in my post Buy, Buy, Buy. The stock is up today in spite of a down market overall. Ka-Ching.

Now for some future prospects.

First a high dividend yielding Financial Services company that makes me a bit nervous. It's a small-cap company so all the details are not available to me in my subscription of the Valueline Survey. My concern about this stock is that it deals with real estate and mortgage backed securities (disturbing flashbacks to the financial crisis from a decade ago). But, at the same time it's ranked high in Timeliness and has a significant dividend rate. Fear still permeates the thought of owning this stock. It's probably one to watch like a hawk.

Here's what I know:

Name:                                Ellington Finance LLC

Industry:                            Financial Services, Specialty

Symbol:                              EFC
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               2
Technical:                          UNKNOWN
Approximate Price:            $16.00
Dividend Yield:                  10.15%
Industry Rank:                   UNKNOWN
Low Gain Estimate:            UNKNOWN
High Gain Estimate:           UNKNOWN

Another is a high flying company in the Financial Services industry that is very unique. This is a company that rents and leases small commuter jets to corporations and the rich. The company seems well managed and has recently upgraded a large part of its fleet of aircraft. So fly high while still staying on the ground with this stock. Hey, maybe there is a way for the 98% to take advantage of the massive tax cuts that got passed this year. 

Also can someone explain why this is a Financial Services company? Maybe because it helps the rich exploit tax loopholes?? WhatSayYou?

Name:                                Aircastle Limited

Industry:                            Financial Services, Diversified

Symbol:                              AYR
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          5
Approximate Price:            $21.00
Dividend Yield:                  5.35%
Industry Rank:                   30
Low Gain Estimate:            65%
High Gain Estimate:           140%

Still more to write about, but I'll leave that for tomorrow.

Thanks for reading. Comments are welcome.

Gold Rush: A Missed Opportunity

It was like it was 1848 and I had a ticket for the train to California, but I was afraid and didn't get on ... and now it's 1856. The Gold Rush has passed me by.

As you may (or may not) have read in my last post, I had put Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD) into my list of Potentials, and decided to convert it to a Buy soon. Right after this call, the stock went into a free fall as expected, refer to "The Curse", The stock dropped from ~$83 all the way down below $75 and I thought, here's my chance, but alas, I panicked. I decided to wait just a bit to see if it would continue to drop further. Nope. It roared back and in a matter of a couple of days has made it back to over $84, creating a missed opportunity that I will remember for ever. Or at least until the next big thing on this adventure. Chalk one up to Fear.

Meanwhile, everything else in my portfolio is also doing well, or better than before for stocks that were doing badly. Here's a quick rundown on the highlights.

Paychex Inc. (PAYX) is doing even better at $61.84 with a 15%+ gain. Same for MGE Energy (MGEE) currently showing a gain of 12.6%. Ka-Ching.

On the other side, Novo Nordisk (NVO) is still struggling at a loss of 11.6%, Ka-Flunk, but CenterPoint Energy (CNP) has recovered enough to be back to a flat status with a loss of just $38 (0.81%).

No new Potentials this time, but Boston Scientific (BSX) is still a good possibility, and maybe I can get into the Klondike Gold Rush with Royal Gold (RGLD).

See how I worked a history lesson into that post? You like? WhatSayYou?

As always, thanks for reading.

Surprise, Surprise!!

"Surprise, Surprise", not as in the classic cliche, but a period of two surprises! Read on for details...

The first surprise was Novo Nordisk (NVO) which after reporting earning took a dive on August 5th, dropping $6 on open and then another $2 the next day. I am still trying to figure out what caused this crash, because the earnings were actually better than expected. OK, after a bit of digging I've discovered that their diabetes drug (Victoza) did not do as well as expected; it was 13% better than current drugs, but the expectation was for 15% better. :-( All told, the 2% shortfall in the expectations for the drug has cost me an almost 10% deficit in my stock's value. Ka-Flunk. Reading more details I've discovered that another cause of the downturn is the company revising it's forecast down by about 2%. The Timeliness of this stock has also dropped to an average 3, but the company is still solid. This will be one stock I will be monitoring a lot more closely.

On the happy side of the surprises, MGE Energy (MGEE) has done well since I decided to replace it with CenterPoint Energy (CNP). They announced a hike in the dividend rate, their 41st consecutive year doing so. The dividend is payable on September 15th for stock holders of record on September 1st, so if you are thinking about this one, now is the time. the stock has also appreciated in price recently currently sitting at $56.55 showing a solid 12.81% gain for me. Ka-Ching!

CenterPoint Energy (CNP) meanwhile is struggling to take off from my purchase price and sitting slightly under water, showing a 3.28% loss. The fundamentals of the stock are still strong though and it's approaching Ka-Flunk territory, but not yet in the GetOutNow range.

Looking ahead to a couple of Potentials; currently a lot of the industries at the top of the Valueline surveys rankings stocks are in the energy or utilities sector. And because I am already invested in these industries, I've had a difficult time finding good Potentials. The two that I have found bend the rules a bit, but still have good potential.

The first is Royal Gold Inc. (RGLD):
Name:                                Royal Gold Inc.
Industry:                            Precious Metals
Symbol:                              RGLD
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $75.93
Dividend Yield:                  1.1%
Industry Rank:                   1
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           45%

This stock is worthy of consideration for a few reasons. First, it's a Timeliness (1)  stock in the highest ranking industry. Next, it's a high growth stock showing an at least 10% growth in multiple fundamentals like sales growth, cash flow, earnings, dividends etc, and the forward looking estimates are just as strong. Finally, and this is the weakest reason, the current chart shows that the stock is likely to drop a bit after achieving a double peak chart pattern, so it might be a good time to get some. The only thing I don't like about it is the P/E Ratio which is at a staggering 56.7!! Is that too much? WhatSayYou? I might consider converting this to a Buy soon.

The other is Boston Scientific (BSX):
Name:                                Boston Scientific Inc.
Industry:                            Medical Supplies Invasive
Symbol:                              BSX
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $23.77
Dividend Yield:                  0%
Industry Rank:                   3
Low Gain Estimate:            25%
High Gain Estimate:           90%

Again, a good stock with solid fundamentals, that also shows up in the list of stocks with enough cash flow to operate and pay dividends and still have money left over for over 5 years. It is priced reasonably, which will allow me to grab a good parcel. The only thing I don't like about this one? No dividends... in spite of having the money to pay it. Boo!  Still, the other numbers are good and this is another stock that I might pick up soon.

That's all for this post folks, thanks for reading.
I hope you leave me some comments if you are a regular reader or even if you are a first timer.

Is There Anybody Out There?

I know, I know, it's been a while. 

But I do have a couple of excuses:

1. I got lazy; what can I say, happens to the best of us.
2. LIFE; like travel, a studio shutdown, layoff, job search, new job, etc., you know, simple stuff.

In any case, thanks for coming back to read my (mis)adventures. 

Let's dive right into it.

A lot has changed since I last wrote a post, so here are the updates.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) has been up and down, but currently stands at $769.89 putting me in the black on my average price with a gain of 4.65%, Ka-Ching! 

Fresh Del Monte (FDP) dropped in Timeliness and I decided to get out and Sell before things turned sour. I closed out my position at $41.833 locking in a gain of 5,44%, Ka-Ching! Unfortuntely, I fled too soon and the stock has climbed out of the funk and currently sits at $59.60 with it's Timeliness restored to 1, Ka-Flunk? WhatSayYou?

Novo Nordisk (NVO) has been through a trough, but has climbed out of it now. It's always been in the black for me though, and is currently at $55.42, a gain of 6.53%, Ka-Ching. As I've said before, they also paid out a $0.96 dividend, equivalent of a 1.78% return, double Ka-Ching.

I also converted another stock in the Potentials list into a Buy. Picked up a batch of Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) at $53.00. It is currently priced at $58.35 giving me a 10.02% gain, Ka-Ching. When I bought it it had a Timeliness of 1, it has since dropped to 2. Here are rest of the details.

Name:                                Paychex, Inc

Industry:                            IT Services

Symbol:                              PAYX
Timeliness:                        2
Safety:                               1
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $53.00
Dividend Yield:                  3.11%
Industry Rank:                   14
Low Gain Estimate:            25%
High Gain Estimate:           45%

As you can see, it still looks like a healthy stock to hold on to.

I converted MGE Energy (MGEE) to a Buy in late March and bought a small parcel at $50.06. The stock has done well since then and is currently selling at $55.98 (after a bad couple of days) and still showing a gain of 11.67%. They also paid out a $0.295 dividend in May, making this another double Ka-Ching stock. But the market is fickle and so are investors (like me), MGE Energy (MGEE) has dropped to a Timeliness of 2 in the Valueline survey and I believe I've found a better alternative in this industry segment.

Name:                                CenterPoint Energy Inc

Industry:                            Electric Utility (Central)

Symbol:                              CNP
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          2
Approximate Price:            $23.47
Dividend Yield:                  4.35%
Industry Rank:                   3
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           25%

CenterPoint Energy (CNP) is a better stock in the same industry in many respects. It has a higher Timeliness, better potential for price increase, almost double dividend yeild, and half the price. I have added this stock into the portfolio with a Buy at $23.4805, and it is currently flat. I plan to Sell my batch of MGE Energy (MGEE) right after it passes its ex-dividend date, so I can get another dividend payout, Ka-Ching.

Finally, I moved quickly from Potentials to Buy on another good dividend paying stock that seems to have a solid track record for paying (increasing) dividends over a long time. 

Name:                                Reynolds American, Inc

Industry:                            Tobacco

Symbol:                              RAI
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               2
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $49.02
Dividend Yield:                  3.69%
Industry Rank:                   17
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           30%

Solid fundamentals, and a Buy price of $49.6521; current price $48.99, well within the normal fluctuations to call flat. But folks, I have sinned, by buying a so-called "sin stock", a tobacco stock. WhatSayYou?.

Anyway, this has been a long update because of the inexcusable hiatus between posts, and I have given you a lot to contemplate. If you've taken the time to read to the end, I'd love it if you leave a comment and let me know what you think of the couple of WhatSayYou? questions in the post, or anything else.

Thanks for coming back.

Over and Out!

The Curse Has Been Broken!!

And there goes my amazing business idea...

This week Wendy's (WEN) bucked the trend and broke the "curse" and did not drop in price. My perfect record is broken and I can no longer offer my services for bringing down a stock price with my toxic touch. One bit of shadow on this stock is that the industry rank for Restaurants has dropped from 16 to 20 and the Timeliness of the stock has dropped from 2 to 3. So maybe, just maybe, my poisonous recommendation power is still in force? WhatSayYou? I guess based on this bad news I have no choice but to declare the stock Dropped from the Potentials list.

MGE Energy (MGEE) also managed to hold off the curse and have a good week holding steady at the price at which I listed it as a Potentials pick. Additionally, the industry group that this company represents jumped from a Valueline rank of 7 to a rank of 3, and the company's Technical rank was upgraded to 1 (best). This stock is looking even better now. I guess this high energy stock has the power to resist my toxic touch. This stock is very likely going to convert into a Buy in the coming week.

The report for the current portfolio is also good this week.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) had a great week rising to $737.60 putting me back in the black on one of my batches, Ka-Ching! 

Fresh Del-Monte (FDP) had a flat-to-slightly down week and ended at $41.87, still leaving me with a 5% gain, Ka-Ching. More good news, on March 7th, the stock paid out a $0.125 dividend, the equivalent of 0.29%. Sadly, the stock has dropped to a Timeliness rating of 3, meaning it's time to get out.  

Novo Nordisk (NVO) had a down week going from little over $57 to $54.61 by the end of the week, also leaving me with almost a 5% gain, Ka-Ching. In other news they paid out a $0.96 dividend, equivalent of a 1.78% return, offsetting the drop in price, double Ka-Ching.

With so much churn in my Potentials and Portfolio, I didn't get time to research new recommendations, so nothing on that front this time.

Thanks for reading.

Would I rather eat Wendy's or McDonald's?

Given my well "proven" Ownership Bias, this week has me asking the question, would I rather eat Wendy's (WEN) food or McDonald's (MCD) food. To tell the truth I would prefer to not eat either, but both these companies are showing enough promise to be on my Potentials list. Because I don't want to put all my proverbial eggs in the same Restaurant business basket, I am forced to pick one of these fast food giants. The advantages of McDonald's (MCD) over Wendy's (WEN) are obvious due to its size and customer affinity, but the smaller chain seems to have a bigger possible upside, so I am going to go with Wendy's (WEN) as my first Potentials pick this week. Here are the vital statistics:

Name:                               Wendy's Co.

Industry:                            Restaurant
Symbol:                              WEN
Timeliness:                        2
Safety:                               3
Technical:                          2
Approximate Price:            $9.39
Dividend Yield:                  2.5%
Industry Rank:                  16
Low Gain Estimate:            25%
High Gain Estimate:           90%

Pretty good numbers; reasonably priced, a decent dividend yield, and a solid growth potential to boot. If I were to believe Valueline, and I do, buying in will result in an 8-18% return on investment between price appreciation and dividend. Makes for an attractive company to bite into. 

Another stock that seems to be powerful at the moment is MGE Energy (MGEE).

Name:                                MGE Energy

Industry:                            Electric Utility (Central)
Symbol:                              MGEE
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               1
Technical:                          2
Approximate Price:            $50.12
Dividend Yield:                  2.4%
Industry Rank:                   7
Low Gain Estimate:            5%
High Gain Estimate:           15%

Looking at the numbers, this does not look very attractive, but the company appears prominently on the Valueline report. First it's a Timeliness 1 company, in an industry that is rated highly (7/97) ranking, plus a decent dividend and growth potential, make this a worthy purchase. Between all of this it is expected to return between 4-7% annually.

I have one more company to add to the Potentials list, but it is a weaker case and so I want to research it some more before I mention it here. I hope to get to that by the time I write my next post.

I have no Buys to report, so let's move on to this weeks performance report.

Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) continues to struggle and is once again below $700 at $693 and change getting a Ka-Flunk rating. Still believe in this one and still holding on tight.

Fresh Del Monte (FDP) continues to serve up sweet rewards sitting at $42.01 even after a bit of a down day today. With a gain of about 18% it earns a solid Ka-Ching rating.

Novo Nordisk (NVO) also continues to pull out of the curse and ended the day today at $56.36, also after a down day. Now showing an 8.2% gain it also earns a Ka-Ching rating.

That's all for today.

Thanks for reading.

The Curse of the Eternal Optimist?

I think the universe is trying to tell me something here; something about the eternal optimism that I exhibit.

No sooner than I pick a stock to add to my Potentials list than bad news seems to hit the company! 

Today my latest pick for the Potentials list, Novo Nordisk ADR (NVO) declared that they will find it difficult to raise prices of drugs in the US and also lowered the earning growth potential down from 15% to 10%. Needless to say, the stock too a beating today; down over $3 or more than 6% at the end of the day after being more than $4 down at one point of time.

Now I'm having second thoughts about it, and wondering if it should be Dropped from the list of Potentials completely. I will continue to watch it for a few days before moving on it for sure. Maybe the market will shrug off the bad news and turn around on this otherwise good stock.

Meanwhile, I am also considering offering up my services to companies who want to do harm to their competitors. For a "small" fee I am willing to put said competitors on my Potentials list and bring down the "Curse of the Eternal Optimist" on them. With the inevitable bad news and financial ruin this will bring upon the competitors, my clients will be free to dominate their industry. Do you think this will be a good business venture? WhatSayYou? Leave your thoughts in the comments below. Or if you are a potential client, feel free to get in touch!! :-)

Saturday, January 30th 2016

The "it's going to get worse before it gets worse." edition. 

As you already know one of my favorite money talk shows is Marketplace from American Public Media. Last week's wrap had a scary conversation about how things are going to get bad in the next few months. The conversation gave me pause about the timing of this (mis)adventure. Foolish as it seems, I am going to forge ahead with the best choices I can make with the knowledge I have, and take comfort in the knowledge that I have a reasonable amount of time before I retire so I still have time on my side.

On the sunny side, this is the first week that officially gets a Ka-Ching rating, a new tag that denotes that stocks in my Buy list actually made enough gains to put me into the "black" or took me higher up than last week. Both Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) and Fresh Del Monte (FDP) ended the week with gains. GOOG made great progress ending the week at $742.95, putting one of my batches well in the black and the other pretty close. On average though, I am 1% over. FDP ended the week at $40.81 giving me a current gain of 3.2%. This put a smile on my face in spite of the potential storm that is approaching.

This week I saw another manifestation of what I have referred to as the "Ownership Bias". At the grocery store while buying lunch time fruit in syrup things, I ended up buying the Del Monte brand over the Dole brand, just because I own FDP stock.

In the Potentials list I have a new stock this week:

Name:                                Novo Nordisk ADR

Industry:                            Drug
Symbol:                              NVO
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               2
Technical:                          3
Approximate Price:            $55
Dividend Yield:                  1.6%
Industry Rank:                    27
Low Gain Estimate:            20%
High Gain Estimate:           55%

Novo Nordisk (NVO) is a Dutch company that makes medications primarily for diabetes management, hemophilia, and other conditions. They have a had a strong 2015 and are poised to continue a good run this year too. Two new diabetes drugs have just received FDA approval and more drugs are well into the research and approval pipeline. They have a small (1.6%) dividend and a good price appreciation potential too. This is also the only stock given a Timeliness of 1 by Valueline in the Drug industry group. I foresee a good chance that I will convert this to a Buy in the next week.

Still on the bubble is Cal-Maine (CALM) which I should have bought when I first saw it. If I had I would have put away a gain of 5%-7% and also claimed the dividend that just passed the ex-dividend date. Maybe this will be the week I jump into this omlette too.

That's all I have this week. If you have been a regular reader, please leave a comment and tell me WhatSayYou?

Saturday, January 23rd 2016

The rollercoaster ride continues...

The market had yet another day of free fall, with 500+ point drop during the day. But by the end of the week the panic had subsided and the markets had levelled off to the levels at the beginning of the week. Read the weekly wrap from my favorite money program on the radio Marketplace.

In terms of current holdings this was a good week. Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) jumped up close 36 points to approximately $725 and almost caught up to one of the batches that I are in my Buy list at $726.70. If this trend continues next week I will break out of the red on this Buy.

Fresh Del Monte (FDP) managed to stay about flat to just under the surface and ended the week at $39.36. This is below my purchase price of $35.54, but not too far to worry just yet.

Cal-Maine (CALM) which is still on my list of Potentials has been a tease. Jumping up and dropping back down but not really picking a direction in this volatile market. I am starting to wonder if I should commit to this stock and ride the waves or hold back a bit longer. My worry is no matter what I choose, it might end up being the wrong decision. Aargh! Maybe my 3 ( is it up to 4 this week ) loyal readers want to chime in and leave a comment to push me this way or that. WhatSayYou?

Last week I did not find any stocks that were good Potentials, so nothing new to report this time. 

Saturday, January 16th 2016

The market freefall continued in the previous week fueled by China, low crude oil prices, and the worry about the long terms effects of the Federal Reserve raising rates. 

All this meant that my previous week's Buy, GOOG continued its downswing and ended the week at $694.45, a significant further loss of investment, earning this week another Ka-Flunk rating. Still I am confident that the investment will pay off in the long term. A contrarian (read crazy) side of me is wondering if I should dig in deeper and buy some more. What would you do? Feel free to leave a comment and let me know WhatSayYou?.

Fortunately it was not all gloom and doom this week. Last week I found another stock for the Potentials list and immediately purchased it too, putting it into the Buy set. First the stats on the new find:

Name:                                Fresh Del Monte Products

Industry:                            Food Processing
Symbol:                              FDP
Timeliness:                        1
Safety:                               3
Technical:                         2
Approximate Price:            $39
Dividend Yield:                  1.3%
Industry Rank:                  28
Low Gain Estimate:            0%
High Gain Estimate:           25%

Fresh Del Monte (FDP), is a familiar name if you shop for groceries anywhere in the United States. You probably know them from the Del Monte brand of canned fruit that you have most likely purchased. Although the dividend yeild is not stunning at only 1.3% and the potential gain is a bit on the lower side, this seems to be a solid stock to weather the current storms. Also, it just got a bump in its Timeliness, from 2 to 1 and the Technical (short term price variance) rating has been bouncing between 1 & 2. The Food Processing industry has also been bumped up from 35 last week to 28 this week making this stock a worthy Buy.

I managed to pick up a few at $39.54, and in spite of the rough week the stock ended the week $39.36. A fraction lower than my purchase price, but not to the tune of the drop in my GOOG holdings. I will be watching this one like a hawk and probably taking my gains as soon as they get above 10%.

And now for the Greek Tragedy of the week. For ( the 3 of you ) that have been following my (mis)adventures from the beginning of this year, you know that I have had Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) on my list of Potentials. Well, I have still not purchased it and put it into the Buy set. Then last week as the entire stock market was in free fall, CALM managed to reverse gravity and advanced almost $4 on the day the market dipped 500+ points!! It ended the week at $49.39 over $3 higher than the start of the week, a gain of about 6.5%. Sadly, I missed out on this goose which laid a golden egg this week.

That's all folks!